Successful Ukrainian Counter-Offensives Fail to Convince Putin to Negotiate, US Experts Say
According to US experts, Ukraine’s successful counter-offensives are not convincing Russian President Putin to negotiate. He would still believe in a complete victory.
According to the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Putin is convinced he can still win the war in Ukraine. Either by conquering Ukraine militarily or surrendering after the West has stopped supporting Ukraine. Ukraine’s successful counter-offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson have not changed the Russian president’s mind.
According to the ISW, Putin would try to prepare his army for a protracted war. For example, in the fall of 2022, he began mobilizing 300,000 additional reservists. In addition, 40,000 prisoners were also recruited for Wagner. And with his speech on Saturday in which the Russian president announced that there would be tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, he would go one step further, according to the think tank.
The ISW believes several successful Ukrainian counter-offensives are necessary to convince Putin to negotiate. But that alone is not enough, according to the think tank. The president is unwilling to “create military conditions favourable enough for Ukraine and the West” to discuss peace.